30 Jul · 23:00 MESZMedium · Model Lean
MT
🇵🇱Mateusz Trela
ELO 1390
FormLWWWW
58%Win chancemodel fair 1.72Trela
JR
🇵🇱Jaroslaw Rolak
ELO 1316
FormWLLLL
58%
42%
🌟Rolak covers set handicap as underdog 82% (28)
Fair odds · Trela
Model 58% · 1.72vsMarket 40% · 2.50· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 41%Total ~78 pts
3-1
23%
3-0
18%
3-2
17%
1-3
17%
2-3
14%
Elo Gap+74
H2H11-10
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+74)
- ✓Better recent form (4-1)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (11-10)