30 Jul · 22:25 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MK
🇵🇱Marcin Kowalczyk
ELO 1401
FormLLLWW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Kowalczyk
AM
🇵🇱Arkadiusz Mugowski
ELO 1395
FormWLLLL
51%
49%
🌟Kowalczyk rarely covers set handicap as favourite 24% (25)
Fair odds · Kowalczyk
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 45% · 2.24· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~77 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
20%
2-3
16%
3-0
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+6
H2H1-1
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.