30 Jul · 22:05 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JR
🇵🇱Jaroslaw Rolak
ELO 1316
FormWLLLL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Kotwica
DK
🇵🇱Dawid Kotwica
ELO 1348
FormWWLWL
46%
54%
🔥 Underdog lean · Rolak🌟Rolak covers set handicap as underdog 82% (28)
Fair odds · Kotwica
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 49% · 2.03· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~78 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
18%
0-3
17%
2-3
15%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+32
H2H8-5
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.