31 Jul · 00:55 MESZLow · Slight Edge
DK
🇵🇱Dawid Kotwica
ELO 1367
FormWWWWL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Mugowski
AM
🇵🇱Arkadiusz Mugowski
ELO 1402
FormWWLLL
46%
54%
🌟Kotwica stays under total as underdog 66% (29)
Fair odds · Mugowski
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 61% · 1.64· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~77 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
18%
0-3
17%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+35
H2H37-38
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.