31 Jul · 00:15 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MT
🇵🇱Mateusz Trela
ELO 1382
FormLLWWW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Mugowski
AM
🇵🇱Arkadiusz Mugowski
ELO 1402
FormWWLLL
48%
52%
Fair odds · Mugowski
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 58% · 1.71· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~78 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
19%
0-3
17%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+20
H2H10-8
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.