31 Jul · 00:00 MESZMedium · Model Lean
MB
🇵🇱Mariusz Baron
ELO 1453
FormLLLWL
59%Win chancemodel fair 1.69Adamus
KA
🇵🇱Kacper Adamus
ELO 1531
FormWLWWW
41%
59%
🌟Baron covers set handicap as underdog 64% (36)
Fair odds · Adamus
Model 59% · 1.69vsMarket 58% · 1.71· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 42%Total ~78 pts
1-3
23%
0-3
19%
2-3
17%
3-1
16%
3-2
14%
Elo Gap+78
H2H12-15
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+78)
- ✓Better recent form (4-1)