31 Jul · 01:45 MESZMedium · Model Lean
JZ
🇵🇱Jacek Zelezik
ELO 1565
FormLWLWL
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Guzik
MG
🇵🇱Michal Guzik
ELO 1629
FormWLWWW
43%
57%
🌟Guzik stays under total as favourite 70% (30)
Fair odds · Guzik
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 61% · 1.65· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 41%Total ~77 pts
1-3
22%
0-3
18%
3-1
17%
2-3
17%
3-2
14%
Elo Gap+64
H2H0-1
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+64)
- ✓Better recent form (4-1)