31 Jul · 05:30 MESZMedium · Model Lean
ML
🇵🇱Marian Lebek
ELO 1561
FormWWLWW
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Tkocz
MT
🇵🇱Marek Tkocz
ELO 1613
FormWWWLL
44%
56%
🌟Lebek stays under total as underdog 65% (17)
Fair odds · Tkocz
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 51% · 1.96· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~78 pts
1-3
22%
0-3
18%
3-1
18%
2-3
16%
3-2
14%
Elo Gap+52
H2H44-50
Why this call
Why this pick? · 1 reason
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+52)