31 Jul · 07:30 MESZElite · Strong Favorite
MC
🇵🇱Milosz Cesarz
ELO 1286
FormLLWLL
69%Win chancemodel fair 1.45Adamus
MA
🇵🇱Mariusz Adamus
ELO 1468
FormWLWLW
31%
69%
🌟Cesarz goes over total as underdog 70% (30)
Fair odds · Adamus
Model 69% · 1.45vsMarket 62% · 1.61· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 52%Total ~80 pts
1-3
27%
0-3
25%
2-3
17%
3-1
12%
3-2
11%
Elo Gap+182
H2H15-10
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+182)
- ✓Better recent form (3-2)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (15-10)