31 Jul · 07:15 MESZMedium · Model Lean
MM
🇵🇱Michal Minda
ELO 1511
FormLWLWW
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Minda
KR
🇵🇱Kamil Rudomina
ELO 1453
FormLWLLL
56%
44%
Fair odds · Minda
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 53% · 1.90· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~79 pts
3-1
22%
3-0
18%
1-3
17%
3-2
16%
2-3
14%
Elo Gap+58
H2H56-54
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+58)
- ✓Better recent form (3-2)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (56-54)