31 Jul · 07:10 MESZLow · Slight Edge
KH
🇵🇱Krzysztof Hetnar
ELO 1580
FormWLWWW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Tkocz
MT
🇵🇱Marek Tkocz
ELO 1605
FormWLWWW
47%
53%
Fair odds · Tkocz
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 60% · 1.67· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~79 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
19%
0-3
17%
3-2
15%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+25
H2H26-10
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.