31 Jul · 08:25 MESZMedium · Model Lean
MM
🇵🇱Michal Minda
ELO 1502
FormLLWLW
59%Win chancemodel fair 1.69Stapor
RS
🇵🇱Rafal Stapor
ELO 1579
FormWWWWW
41%
59%
🌟Stapor goes over total as favourite 66% (32)
Fair odds · Stapor
Model 59% · 1.69vsMarket 51% · 1.95· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 42%Total ~78 pts
1-3
23%
0-3
19%
2-3
17%
3-1
16%
3-2
14%
Elo Gap+77
H2H10-9
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+77)
- ✓Better recent form (5-0)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (10-9)