31 Jul · 10:10 MESZLow · Coin Flip
ML
🇵🇱Marian Lebek
ELO 1577
FormWLWWW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Hetnar
KH
🇵🇱Krzysztof Hetnar
ELO 1583
FormWLWWL
49%
51%
🌟Lebek stays under total as underdog 65% (17)
Fair odds · Hetnar
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 53% · 1.89· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~78 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
20%
3-2
16%
0-3
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+6
H2H24-24
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.