31 Jul · 12:05 MESZLow · Slight Edge
AD
🇵🇱Artur Daniel
ELO 1687
FormLLWLL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Daniel
GP
🇵🇱Grzegorz Poliniewicz
ELO 1658
FormLWLLL
53%
47%
Fair odds · Daniel
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 65% · 1.54· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~76 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
19%
3-0
17%
3-2
15%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+29
H2H30-9
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.