31 Jul · 11:10 MESZElite · Strong Favorite
MC
🇵🇱Milosz Cesarz
ELO 1274
FormLLLLL
79%Win chancemodel fair 1.27Lebek
ML
🇵🇱Marian Lebek
ELO 1569
FormLWLWW
21%
79%
🌟Cesarz goes over total as underdog 70% (30)
Fair odds · Lebek
Model 79% · 1.27vsMarket 77% · 1.30· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 62%Total ~76 pts
0-3
34%
1-3
29%
2-3
16%
3-2
9%
3-1
8%
Elo Gap+295
H2H26-2
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+295)
- ✓Better recent form (3-2)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (26-2)