31 Jul · 13:30 MESZLow · Coin Flip
WT
🇵🇱Wojciech Tobiasz
ELO 1393
FormWLLWL
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Kaczmarek
JK
🇵🇱Jakub Kaczmarek
ELO 1396
FormWLWLW
50%
50%
🌟Kaczmarek goes over total as favourite 67% (18)
Fair odds · Kaczmarek
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 66% · 1.51· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~78 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
20%
3-2
16%
0-3
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+3
H2H5-8
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.