31 Jul · 13:00 MESZMedium · Model Lean
MM
🇵🇱Michal Minda
ELO 1504
FormWLLLW
59%Win chancemodel fair 1.69Minda
MM
🇵🇱Mateusz Misiak
ELO 1425
FormWLWWW
59%
41%
Fair odds · Minda
Model 59% · 1.69vsMarket 71% · 1.41· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 42%Total ~78 pts
3-1
23%
3-0
19%
3-2
17%
1-3
16%
2-3
14%
Elo Gap+79
H2H18-10
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+79)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (18-10)