31 Jul · 18:15 MESZLow · Slight Edge
SS
🇵🇱Sebastian Szostok
ELO 1575
FormLWWWW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Szostok
MK
🇵🇱Mariusz Koczyba
ELO 1561
FormLWWWL
52%
48%
Fair odds · Szostok
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 49% · 2.06· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~78 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
19%
3-0
16%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+14
H2H16-7
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.