1 Aug · 02:25 MESZLow · Coin Flip
CP
🇵🇱Cezary Pawlik
ELO 1620
FormWLWWW
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Pawlik
OJ
🇵🇱Oskar Jedrzejowski
ELO 1618
FormWLLWW
50%
50%
Fair odds · Pawlik
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 48% · 2.08· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~80 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
20%
2-3
16%
3-0
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+2
H2H6-7
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.