1 Aug · 09:40 MESZLow · Coin Flip
DW
🇵🇱Dariusz Wrobel
ELO 1394
FormLWWLW
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Sinicki
MS
🇵🇱Maciej Sinicki
ELO 1397
FormLWLLL
50%
50%
Fair odds · Sinicki
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 51% · 1.94· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~77 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
20%
3-2
16%
0-3
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+3
H2H10-6
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.