1 Aug · 09:15 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JW
🇵🇱Jakub Wozniak
ELO 1439
FormWWLLL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Woskowicz
MW
🇵🇱Mateusz Woskowicz
ELO 1477
FormLLWLW
46%
54%
Fair odds · Woskowicz
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 49% · 2.03· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~76 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
18%
0-3
17%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+38
H2H1-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.