1 Aug · 10:10 MESZLow · Coin Flip
DP
🇵🇱Dawid Poloszczanski
ELO 1301
FormWLWWL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Wisniewski
BW
🇵🇱Bartlomiej Wisniewski
ELO 1306
FormWLLLL
49%
51%
Fair odds · Wisniewski
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 47% · 2.12· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~76 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
20%
3-2
16%
0-3
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+5
H2H14-28
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.