1 Aug · 13:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
RW
🇵🇱Rafal Wojcik
ELO 1430
FormLWWLL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Jesiek
JJ
🇵🇱Jakub Jesiek
ELO 1457
FormLWLLL
47%
53%
Fair odds · Jesiek
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 55% · 1.83· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~79 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
19%
0-3
17%
3-2
15%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+27
H2H3-2
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.