1 Aug · 13:25 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JR
🇵🇱Jaroslaw Rolak
ELO 1338
FormWWLWL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Kwodawski
BK
🇵🇱Bartosz Kwodawski
ELO 1359
FormWLLLW
48%
52%
🌟Rolak covers set handicap as underdog 82% (28)
Fair odds · Kwodawski
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 71% · 1.40· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~78 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
19%
0-3
17%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+21
H2H0-2
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.