1 Aug · 14:20 MESZLow · Slight Edge
ML
🇵🇱Marcin Lach
ELO 1636
FormWLLWW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Lach
PG
🇵🇱Piotr Gumulinski
ELO 1603
FormWWWWW
54%
46%
🌟Gumulinski covers set handicap as underdog 77% (13)
Fair odds · Lach
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 62% · 1.62· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~78 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
18%
3-0
17%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+33
H2H0-1
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.