1 Aug · 17:25 MESZMedium · Model Lean
PG
🇵🇱Piotr Gesiarz
ELO 1491
FormWLLWL
59%Win chancemodel fair 1.69Kocik
TK
🇵🇱Tomasz Kocik
ELO 1570
FormWWWWW
41%
59%
🌟Gesiarz covers set handicap as underdog 63% (19)
Fair odds · Kocik
Model 59% · 1.69vsMarket 75% · 1.34· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 42%Total ~76 pts
1-3
23%
0-3
19%
2-3
17%
3-1
16%
3-2
14%
Elo Gap+79
H2H3-1
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+79)
- ✓Better recent form (5-0)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (3-1)