1 Aug · 18:15 MESZMedium · Model Lean
MB
🇵🇱Mateusz Baran
ELO 1534
FormLWWLW
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Baran
PG
🇵🇱Piotr Gesiarz
ELO 1491
FormWLLWL
55%
45%
🌟Gesiarz covers set handicap as underdog 63% (19)
Fair odds · Baran
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 56% · 1.79· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~76 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
18%
3-0
17%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+43
H2H2-0
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+43)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (2-0)