1 Aug · 19:20 MESZMedium · Model Lean
PG
🇵🇱Piotr Gesiarz
ELO 1491
FormWLLWL
59%Win chancemodel fair 1.69Fomin
AF
🇵🇱Andriej Fomin
ELO 1576
FormWLWWL
41%
59%
🌟Gesiarz covers set handicap as underdog 63% (19)
Fair odds · Fomin
Model 59% · 1.69vsMarket 66% · 1.51· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 42%Total ~78 pts
1-3
23%
0-3
19%
2-3
17%
3-1
16%
3-2
13%
Elo Gap+85
H2H3-1
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+85)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (3-1)