1 Aug · 20:55 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MB
🇵🇱Mateusz Baran
ELO 1534
FormLWWLW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Skorupa
JS
🇵🇱Jakub Skorupa
ELO 1544
FormWWWWL
49%
51%
Fair odds · Skorupa
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 51% · 1.95· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~79 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
19%
0-3
16%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+10
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.