1 Aug · 18:55 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MK
🇵🇱Michal Krzyzanowski
ELO 1611
FormWWWWW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Krzyzanowski
TF
🇵🇱Tomasz Filbrandt
ELO 1578
FormLLWWL
54%
46%
Fair odds · Krzyzanowski
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 49% · 2.06· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~78 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
18%
3-0
17%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+33
H2H3-5
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.