1 Aug · 20:30 MESZLow · Coin Flip
DK
🇵🇱Dawid Kosmal
ELO 1601
FormWWWLW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Krzyzanowski
MK
🇵🇱Michal Krzyzanowski
ELO 1611
FormWWWWW
49%
51%
Fair odds · Krzyzanowski
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 64% · 1.55· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~77 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
19%
0-3
16%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+10
H2H1-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.