1 Aug · 21:10 MESZMedium · Model Lean
CP
🇵🇱Cezary Pawlik
ELO 1629
FormWLLWW
59%Win chancemodel fair 1.69Pawlik
DP
🇵🇱Dawid Pyrek
ELO 1546
FormWWWWL
59%
41%
Fair odds · Pawlik
Model 59% · 1.69vsMarket 66% · 1.51· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 42%Total ~79 pts
3-1
23%
3-0
19%
3-2
17%
1-3
16%
2-3
13%
Elo Gap+83
H2H10-4
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+83)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (10-4)