2 Aug · 13:25 MESZLow · Coin Flip
DP
🇵🇱Dawid Poloszczanski
ELO 1356
FormWWWWW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Lukaszewski
ML
🇵🇱Mikolaj Lukaszewski
ELO 1366
FormLWWWL
49%
51%
🔥 Underdog lean · Poloszczanski🌟Lukaszewski rarely covers set handicap as favourite 33% (12)
Fair odds · Lukaszewski
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 53% · 1.89· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~78 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
19%
0-3
16%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+10
H2H10-6
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.