2 Aug · 15:25 MESZLow · Coin Flip
TP
🇵🇱Tadeusz Piotrowski
ELO 1399
FormLLWWW
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Mugowski
AM
🇵🇱Arkadiusz Mugowski
ELO 1400
FormLWLLW
50%
50%
Fair odds · Mugowski
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 42% · 2.37· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~79 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
20%
3-2
16%
0-3
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+1
H2H9-16
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.