2 Aug · 16:15 MESZMedium · Model Lean
PS
🇵🇱Piotr Staniszewski
ELO 1364
FormWLWLL
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Mugowski
AM
🇵🇱Arkadiusz Mugowski
ELO 1405
FormWLWLL
45%
55%
Fair odds · Mugowski
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 52% · 1.91· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~76 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
18%
0-3
17%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+41
H2H7-3
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+41)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (7-3)