2 Aug · 16:35 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MZ
🇵🇱Mateusz Zagajewski
ELO 1428
FormWWLWL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Zagajewski
TP
🇵🇱Tadeusz Piotrowski
ELO 1394
FormLLLWW
54%
46%
Fair odds · Zagajewski
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 59% · 1.70· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~79 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
18%
3-0
17%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+34
H2H0-1
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.