2 Aug · 17:50 MESZLow · Slight Edge
KS
🇵🇱Kacper Szurlej
ELO 1577
FormWWWWW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Szurlej
SB
🇵🇱Szymon Brud
ELO 1537
FormLLWWL
54%
46%
🌟Brud goes over total as underdog 67% (24)
Fair odds · Szurlej
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 38% · 2.60· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~80 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
18%
3-0
17%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+40
H2H5-4
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.