2 Aug · 20:45 MESZLow · Coin Flip
PK
🇵🇱Pawel Kurek
ELO 1451
FormLLLWL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Baron
MB
🇵🇱Mariusz Baron
ELO 1461
FormWLWLW
49%
51%
🌟Baron rarely covers set handicap as favourite 33% (46)
Fair odds · Baron
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 40% · 2.47· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~79 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
19%
0-3
16%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+10
H2H1-9
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.