2 Aug · 21:30 MESZMedium · Model Lean
GM
🇵🇱Grzegorz Marud
ELO 1551
FormWWWLW
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Marud
WU
🇵🇱Wojciech Urban
ELO 1493
FormLLWLL
56%
44%
🌟Urban covers set handicap as underdog 68% (19)
Fair odds · Marud
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 49% · 2.04· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~78 pts
3-1
22%
3-0
18%
1-3
17%
3-2
16%
2-3
14%
Elo Gap+58
H2H55-50
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+58)
- ✓Better recent form (4-1)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (55-50)