2 Aug · 21:10 MESZLow · Slight Edge
SJ
🇵🇱Sebastian Juzek
ELO 1465
FormWWLLW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Paszkiewicz
MP
🇵🇱Michal Paszkiewicz
ELO 1479
FormWLLWW
48%
52%
🌟Juzek stays under total as underdog 68% (19)
Fair odds · Paszkiewicz
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 50% · 2.02· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~80 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
19%
0-3
16%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+14
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.