2 Aug · 22:00 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JB
🇵🇱Jaroslaw Badura
ELO 1496
FormWLLWL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Badura
MP
🇵🇱Michal Paszkiewicz
ELO 1479
FormWLLWW
52%
48%
🌟Paszkiewicz covers set handicap as underdog 92% (13)
Fair odds · Badura
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 47% · 2.12· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~79 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
19%
3-0
16%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+17
H2H2-7
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.