2 Aug · 23:05 MESZLow · Coin Flip
KS
🇵🇱Kacper Szurlej
ELO 1566
FormLLWLW
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Szurlej
MM
🇵🇱Marcin Marchlewski
ELO 1563
FormWLWWL
50%
50%
Fair odds · Szurlej
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 37% · 2.71· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~77 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
20%
2-3
16%
3-0
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+3
H2H5-14
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.