2 Aug · 23:30 MESZMedium · Model Lean
PK
🇵🇱Pawel Kurek
ELO 1437
FormLLLLL
59%Win chancemodel fair 1.69Oracz
LO
🇵🇱Lukasz Oracz
ELO 1521
FormWLLLW
41%
59%
Fair odds · Oracz
Model 59% · 1.69vsMarket 55% · 1.83· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 42%Total ~78 pts
1-3
23%
0-3
19%
2-3
17%
3-1
16%
3-2
13%
Elo Gap+84
H2H6-2
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+84)
- ✓Better recent form (2-3)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (6-2)