2 Aug · 23:10 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MP
🇵🇱Michal Paszkiewicz
ELO 1479
FormLWWLL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Paszkiewicz
JJ
🇵🇱Jakub Jesiek
ELO 1451
FormLWWWW
53%
47%
Fair odds · Paszkiewicz
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 49% · 2.06· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~79 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
19%
3-0
17%
2-3
15%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+28
H2H0-3
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.