3 Aug · 00:25 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MP
🇵🇱Michal Paszkiewicz
ELO 1479
FormLWWLL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Badura
JB
🇵🇱Jaroslaw Badura
ELO 1505
FormWWLLW
47%
53%
🌟Paszkiewicz covers set handicap as underdog 92% (13)
Fair odds · Badura
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 38% · 2.64· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~79 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
19%
0-3
17%
3-2
15%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+26
H2H3-7
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.