3 Aug · 00:20 MESZMedium · Model Lean
MB
🇵🇱Mariusz Baron
ELO 1461
FormLLWWL
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Oracz
LO
🇵🇱Lukasz Oracz
ELO 1521
FormWLLLW
43%
57%
🌟Baron covers set handicap as underdog 64% (36)
Fair odds · Oracz
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 72% · 1.38· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~78 pts
1-3
22%
0-3
18%
3-1
17%
2-3
16%
3-2
14%
Elo Gap+60
H2H19-17
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+60)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (19-17)