3 Aug · 00:55 MESZLow · Coin Flip
KS
🇵🇱Kacper Szurlej
ELO 1558
FormLLLWL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Szurlej
SB
🇵🇱Szymon Brud
ELO 1551
FormWWLWW
51%
49%
🌟Brud goes over total as underdog 67% (24)
Fair odds · Szurlej
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 50% · 2.02· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~80 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
20%
2-3
16%
3-0
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+7
H2H5-5
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.