3 Aug · 02:00 MESZMedium · Model Lean
MP
🇵🇱Michal Paszkiewicz
ELO 1475
FormLWLWW
58%Win chancemodel fair 1.72Paszkiewicz
AR
🇵🇱Adam Ruszkiewicz
ELO 1400
FormLWWLL
58%
42%
🌟Ruszkiewicz covers set handicap as underdog 65% (31)
Fair odds · Paszkiewicz
Model 58% · 1.72vsMarket 70% · 1.43· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 41%Total ~77 pts
3-1
23%
3-0
19%
3-2
17%
1-3
17%
2-3
14%
Elo Gap+75
H2H14-5
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+75)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (14-5)