3 Aug · 01:55 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MB
🇵🇱Mariusz Baron
ELO 1455
FormLLLWW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Urban
WU
🇵🇱Wojciech Urban
ELO 1480
FormWLLLL
47%
53%
🔥 Underdog lean · Baron🌟Urban rarely covers set handicap as favourite 30% (33)
Fair odds · Urban
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 63% · 1.59· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~79 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
19%
0-3
17%
3-2
15%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+25
H2H53-49
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.