3 Aug · 04:10 MESZMedium · Model Lean
ZN
🇵🇱Zbigniew Nocun
ELO 1622
FormWWWLW
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Guzik
MG
🇵🇱Michal Guzik
ELO 1679
FormWLWWW
44%
56%
🌟Guzik stays under total as favourite 69% (35)
Fair odds · Guzik
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 75% · 1.34· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~76 pts
1-3
22%
0-3
18%
3-1
17%
2-3
16%
3-2
14%
Elo Gap+57
H2H3-0
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+57)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (3-0)